Showtime for India

While rate hike fears have eased down a bit, it’s now time to factor in the next demon in line: Recession.

Let us understand how some of the top economies of the world are grappling with recessionary fears.

US, Europe, UK
The drop in Brent and WTI, to a very low level in early August on fears of recession and softening global economic growth is worrying global investors. So, the pertinent question is: Have the markets factored in a possible recession looming over developed economies?

As of June, Quarter ’22, US GDP declined for the second straight quarter, more or less a confirmation that the world’s largest economy may be entering recession, if 3rd quarter show negative GDP as well.

The recession fear looms over the United Kingdom as well, as with a rise in the price of natural gas, recession fears have intensified in Europe.
As Ukraine completes 6 months of going into war, the devastation is felt way beyond its borders.

The Euro, Europe’s de facto currency is at a 2 decade low. Let us tell you what does this imply. Europe has 27 countries and 19 of them use the Euro as its currency. The Euro is losing its value because European economies are facing 3 major challenges –
– Energy Crisis [this can single-handedly destroy Europe’s economy]
– High Inflation [currently at a 25-year high at ~10%]
– Political Turmoil

Europe’s growth engine, Germany, the largest economy in Europe, gets almost half of its Gas supply from Russia. Based on macros, if Moscow cuts off this supply completely, Germany could lose $225 bn in 2 years. Couple this with inflation, it is evident that the Euro zone is not insulated with the rising cost of living. The numbers are scary across Europe- from energy to food, everything is becoming expensive.

Italy, Europe’s 2nd largest economy is also losing its trust in the face of the world economy. The political chaos tumbling down Italy might be a trigger to shake up the entire European economy. Investor confidence in the German economy is at the lowest level in at least a decade- this was seen when Investors dumped Italian govt. bonds in July ’22.

UK [technically not a part of the EU but a major European economy], is in a dire state. The Bank of England expects the country to enter a recession from the fourth quarter of this year, which will last until the end of 2023.
The US, EU, and a the large part of the Western world is very clearly heading towards an economic recession.

China
China’s current status in the global economy is not what it once was. The US has been actively working to keep China from having access to cutting-edge technology. China’s property sector, which contributes to around a quarter of their total GDP, is suffering. Droughts, heat waves, and flash floods have been causing a lot of problems for China lately. These problems are happening at an alarming rate due to climate change. Experts predict that the heat wave could be one of the worst in global history.

India

But INDIA continues to clock economic numbers in green, leaving several economists puzzled.

Is India insulated from the economic upheaval ongoing globally?

In geopolitics, never before has India been so highly wooed. The US is looking for supporters in Asia to counter China, and India is an obvious choice. India is well positioned to take advantage of the shift away from China in both political and economic arenas. Just as the US cultivated China as a rival to the Soviet Union, India may increasingly play that role against China.

As of today, when most advanced and emerging economies are struggling to control inflation rates even at 14-15%, India has been able to control and maintain it in single digits. India took supply-side measures early-on & hence has been able to remain relatively stable and insulate itself in this time of great economic volatility globally…

The economic recovery is picking up pace here, in India. With the bank credit growth rising rapidly, we could be in a position for a recovery in investment demand. Our demand-driven economy is well insulated from the global slowdown, and our export supply of services continue to witness robust growth. While the markets have corrected, valuation premiums are still being enjoyedin the equity market & a strong results season has concurred the fact that India’s business cycle is indeed turning up.

But this is not just a short-term opportunity. We have the chance to enter a new growth trajectory. India achieving its growth potential is linked to the revival of private capital expenditure, emphasising the dire need for businesses to start making fresh investments. There have been a lot of reforms started by the government. One of them is GST. There are also some benefits coming from the bankruptcy law, lowering corporate taxes, fuel subsidy removal, and RERA among others. Privatisation and monetizing public assets are in progress as well. The Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme has been rolled out to attract investors to manufacture in India, and it has already started showing results. India’s vibrant start-up sector showcases our potential to attract capital as well.

Can corporate India deliver 15% plus earnings growth over the next two-three years? The answer is definitely yes. Flows have started to ebb, and there is a case emerging that Indian markets could outperform global markets. The economy is in a good restart mode. The capex has started, and corporate earnings were also reasonably good in the first quarter, despite so many challenges on the raw material side. We are, overall, in a good state of health.

India’s corporate earnings and quality of its balance sheet are likely to outperform even among emerging markets. Of course, there are headwinds such as inflation, rural slowdown and tightening monetary policy that investors must keep a watch over, but, we have maintained stability as a country and our ruling party has shown that it is good at balancing capitalist and democratic needs.

However, we have our demons as well- the biggest of them being unemployment. Topping it up, providing decent jobs for the underemployed masses is a huge challenge. There are still vulnerabilities in our fiscal situation and given the macro outlook across the globe, an epidemic from abroad is a big worry.

Nevertheless, this time we have an extremely promising conjunction of circumstances, both internal and external, that could take the nation to reach new heights. The Indian economy stands insulated to the recessionary realities of the West & this is an opportunity that is only ours to lose.

Move over Sweet Seventeen, it’s time for us to celebrate the Sweet SeventyFifth as 75 years after Independence, India is in a very unique sweet spot today.

All we have to do is to seize the moment.

RISK DISCLAIMER: Investments are subject to market-related risks. This write up is meant for general information purposes and not to be construed as any recommendation or advice. The investor must make their own analysis and decision depending upon risk appetite. Only those investors who have an aptitude and attitude to risk should consider the space of Alternates (PMS & AIFs). Past Performance may or may not be sustained in the future and should not be used as a basis for comparison with other investments. Please read the disclosure documents carefully before investing. PMS & AIF products are market-linked and do not offer any guaranteed/assured returns. These are riskier investments, with a risk to principal amount as well. Thus, investors must make informed decisions. It is necessary to deep dive not only into the performance, but also into people, philosophy, portfolio, and price, before investing. We, at PMS AIF World do such a detailed 5 P analysis.

Trend: raportowanie problemów technicznych do regulatora

Liczba graczy na rundę

Gracze 40+ w kasynowych grach karcianych

Nowe sloty inspirowane crash games

Średnia liczba powiadomień session-time

Wskaźniki bezpieczeństwa technicznego

Nowe sloty Megaways w Polsce

Wpływ blogów eksperckich

Limity stołów karcianych a bezpieczeństwo

Limity wypłat dla polskich graczy

Free spiny promujące premiery

Stablecoiny jako ochrona przed zmiennością

Krypto a programy lojalnościowe kasyn

Popularność gier w trybie szybkim

Wypłaty na konto bankowe

Średnia liczba stołów live przy starcie kasyna

Rzadkość maksymalnych wygranych

Live vs RNG w młodszych grupach wiekowych

Crash a korelacja z wydarzeniami sportowymi

Multi-hand blackjack w Polsce

Obrót na slotach w Polsce

Rozbudowa sekcji crash games

Udział PLN w transakcjach

Międzynarodowe standardy odpowiedzialnej gry

Obrót na slotach w Polsce

Ograniczenia reklamy w Polsce

Współpraca MF z bankami i PSP

Bakarat jako gra dla high-rollerów

Tryb demo w premierowych slotach

Średnia długość regulaminu kasyna

Dominacja slotów w ofercie kasyn

Popularność slotów turniejowych

Nowe crash a interfejs mobile-only

Tron i TRC20 w iGaming

Ochrona nieletnich – trend zaostrzenia

Krzywa odpadania nowej gry

Wypłaty na konto bankowe

Średnia liczba gier w ulubionych

Egzotyczne gry karciane w Polsce

Sloty z jackpotem godzinowym

Współpraca z kancelariami prawnymi

Trend: raportowanie problemów technicznych do regulatora

Współpraca organów nadzoru finansowego

Regulacja kryptowalut w grach hazardowych

Nowe kasyna a lokalne metody płatności

Wykorzystanie Cloudflare i CDN

Standardy informacyjne wobec YMYL

Channelling do rynku onshore i offshore

Rola regulacji w kształtowaniu oferty

Gry z mechaniką cluster pays

Popularność Baccarat Squeeze

Rozliczanie bonusów przy depozytach krypto

Popularność Casino Hold'em 2026

Popularność gier z funkcją re-spin

Wiek graczy kasynowych w Polsce

YMYL: rola ostrzeżeń o uzależnieniu

Najpopularniejsze mechaniki slotów

Rosnąca liczba użytkowników BLIK

Średni czas reakcji supportu live

Turnieje na nowych slotach

Game shows a młodsza widownia

Wypłaty na karty płatnicze

Współczynnik powrotu graczy

Mobilna rozgrywka w grach kasynowych

Crash a limity operatora na maksymalne wygrane

Państwowy monopol na kasyno online

Popularność ruletki na żywo w Polsce

Krypto a programy lojalnościowe kasyn

Nowe sloty z jackpotem progresywnym

Krypto płatności a chargeback

Średnia liczba turniejów miesięcznie

Odsetek automatycznie odrzuconych płatności

Nowe kasyna a free spiny bez depozytu

Szybkie przelewy online w Polsce

Średni bankroll na gry karciane

Odpowiedzialna gra w stołach karcianych

India

Leave A Reply Cancel reply

Client Stories